CSDC/CÉCD 2018 Quebec Election

2018 Quebec Election

These forecasts were created by Eric Guntermann (UC Berkeley, Political Science) and Benjamin Forest (McGill, Geography). Both are members of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship.

If you have questions, please contact Dr. Guntermann (English or French) or Prof. Forest (English).


There is a 96.7% chance that the CAQ will win a majority government (63 seats or more) and a 3.3 % chance it will get a minority (more seats than any other party). These predictions are based on the latest poll (Léger, June 10th).

As shown in Figure 1, our model shows that the CAQ will likely get between 62 and 71 seats.

2018 Election Predictions

Here is the evolution of our predictions since March:

2018 Election Predictions

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