CSDC/CÉCD 2018 Quebec Election

2018 Quebec Election


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These forecasts were created by Eric Guntermann (UC Berkeley, Political Science) and Benjamin Forest (McGill, Geography). Both are members of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship.

If you have questions, please contact Dr. Guntermann (English or French) or Prof. Forest (English).


OUR CURRENT FORECAST (September 29, 2018)

We present predictions based on polls from each of the three major firms (Ipsos, Mainstreet, and Léger) that have released polls in recent days. They all suggest the government will be a minority. Predictions based on the Mainstreet and Léger polls strongly suggest the minority will be led by the CAQ. Those based on the final Ipsos poll are more suggestive of a PLQ minority.

Using results from the last Mainstreet poll (September 27), we estimate that there is a 88% chance that the CAQ will form a minority government. There is a 12% chance that the PLQ will form a minority.

Predictions 2018

Using results from the latest Léger poll (September 27), we estimate that there is 93% chance that the CAQ will form a minority government. There is an 7% chance that the Liberals will form a minority.

Predictions 2018

Using results from the last Ipsos poll (September 28), we estimate that there is a 40% chance that the CAQ will form a minority government. There is a 60% chance that the PLQ will form a minority.

Predictions 2018

Click here for predictions for each riding based on the latest Léger poll. Contact Eric Guntermann for predictions based on other polls.

Here is the evolution of our predictions since March:

2018 Election Predictions

Click here for more information about our methodology.